Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
